5GW Example? Is ANSWER Trying to get a Chavez-friendly candidate elected in Mexico?

From Instapundit, a ProCynic post suggests:

Now, there a backlash brewing against the illegal aliens/colonists. The rallies have not won support, but hostility from the American public.

Which is probably what the rallies ultimate organizers, ANSWER and possibly Chavez himself, wanted. Forget the illegals. ANSWER may believe that if it can prompt this backlash against the people it’s purportedly trying to help, then it can get Chavez ally AMLO elected in Mexico and cause tremendous damage to the US.

This sounds like 5GW to me:

  • The 5GW Operators (small purpose-driven-network ANSWER) mostly create and manipulates a 4G movement (illegal immigration rights / Open Borders / “Humans are not illegal”) from behind the scenes unknown to most followers of the 4G movement
  • The 4G is manipulated to fail forcing the opposite of the 4G’s desired outcome
  • The 4G movement may then be discarded completely by the 5GW operators
  • This failure of the 4G movement creates a backlash in Mexico against the US
  • This backlash creates a favorable outcome to the 5GW Operators (increased likelihood of Communist ally to Chavez be elected in Mexico)

Update: Phatic Communion post on Hugo Chavez as 5GWarrior mentioned in the comments

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12 Responses

  1. I once broached the subject of Chavez as a 5GWarrior, and Dan tdaxp chided me.

    But, see…If ANSWER and Chavez are being discussed in this manner, it’s not quite SecretWar, is it? Of course, first attempts at 5GW might be clumsy, a prelude to better attempts and eventual adepts. On the other hand, I am not 100% sure that 5GW must always be secret, or not secret in every respect.

  2. I think you have it with “not secret in every respect”. Most people don’t think ANSWER is a communist group. People who bring this up are dismissed as paranoid or as neo-mcarthyites, that sort of thing. Anybody who tries to point out a 5GW effort seems to be suggesting conspiracy theories and therefore seems a bit silly. As long as the 5GW effort has a short enough time frame (through the Mexican elections only), that might be enough cover. TDAXP (http://tdaxp.blogspirit.com/archive/2006/05/13/post-modern-christianity-post-modern-war.html) seems on the verge of trying to explain 5GW as a post-modern generation of war, but we might need to wait a bit till that post arrives.

  3. Curtis,

    Purpleslog is right that ANSWER is generally not perceived by the American public to be a Marxist group. Very few are aware of its connections to Marxist governments, such as North Korea and Cuba. In large part, this is because the sympathetic MSM has refused to investigate it, let alone cover it.

    So it’s not secret, but it’s not exactly advertised and it probably won’t be covered. The connection of the dots here seems fairly obvious to me. I sat on this idea for a few weeks before I posted thinking someone else would pick up on it first. No one did, and the backlash against W became stronger, prompting him to schedule this Monday speech. Some reports suggest that he will put troops on the border. I don’t know whether the Mexican electorate will like that any better than a wall.

    So, these connections need to be advertised. Sunlight is the best disinfectant. The Mexicans hate Hugo Chavez, and if the American and Mexican people are made aware of what mauy be going on with ANSWER and the rallies, it might help defuse this emotional situation with immigration, prevent a disaster for the US in the Mexican election and put further pressure on Chavez and his crumbling (literally — see the bridge to Caracas main airport) empire.

  4. Very interesting – like your application of 5GW ideas to analyzing current trends. Nice set of posts.

  5. Mark, thank you for the kind words.

  6. Purpleslog,

    This sounds more like the 4GW was a pawn, rather than the enemy of the 5GW force, and I can see how the 4GW may be unaware of the motivations of that theoretical 5GW force. But I’m not so sure that the assumed primary target — the U.S. — is similarly misled by the 5GW force. Actually, breaking the U.S. down to two primary groups, the general populace and government officials, I suppose the populace may have been secretly influenced by ANSWER in the manner you suggest; but I doubt that all levels of the U.S. government are unaware of the role of ANSWER and possibly Chavez. Plus, not all bloggers, who are in the general populace, have been fooled, if we’re talking about it now. (In fact, I think I remember seeing an article about Chavez’ role in the protests from the MSM already.) Thus, the theoretical 5GW force in all likelihood has failed to fool its primary target, assuming that the government of the U.S. (rather than the majority of the people) are the primary target. This might not matter much, given how the Federal government and State governments must placate elements of the populace or somehow work around the popular backlash in response to ANSWER’s moves.

    Putting the populace and the government together, and assuming that the entire U.S. is the target, the protests and whatever results of the protests are certainly likely to cause problems for the U.S. down the road. I’m not sure, however, that stoking anti-U.S. hatred in Mexico will prove beneficial for Chavez, in either the short term or the long term, even if it results in a Leftist presidency for Mexico. Rather, I’d go so far as to predict a semi-isolationism in the U.S. (which is already underway, after all) and a much greater focus on our own hemisphere and borders, and a focus away from other spheres, if significant anti-U.S. forces are aligned in Latin America. I do not think a 5GW force with any significant intelligence is going to shoot for such a scenario; so if ANSWER and Chavez and Castro and Morales, etc., are indeed scheming in the manner you suggest, they are probably going to regret it.

    It would be a silly 5GW move, in the long term. (And 5GW will almost always have long terms, or at least an adept 5GW force will very carefully consider long term effects along with short term effects.)

    — Unless, of course, Chavez, Castro, and Morales are also pawns, rather than the 5GW force we should be worrying about. If we accept the fact that the apparent opponents (and, pursuant to my little post on Chavez, linked above, the semi-openly acting opponents) are our true 5GW foes, if they are only actually pawns, then the true 5GW force would be able to use the open hostilities, disruption, and confusion in this hemisphere for its own benefit, while remaining snuggly hidden. And I think you know who I mean.

  7. Curtis, great comments!

    The US government is not the real primary target. The 4G force is just a pawn.

    It is possible, the US Gov would not know the intentions of the 5GW effort. If the 5GW operator’s play runs well, the 4GW force gains the attention of the US (citizens and leaders). The reaction (over-reaction maybe) by the US is to the 4GW effort. The reaction to that (over) reaction by the Mexican Citizens is the true goal of the 5GW operators. The US Leaders and the 4G movement are both used as means to the 5GW Operators ends – the increased likelihood of the election of a Leftist-friendly Mexican President. The 4G movement in the US could be discarded or used for cover in some other future 5GW operation.

    Also, we must remember that the US Gov is not monolithic but consists of individuals with different world-view/frames and different focuses. I think the shorter the 5GW operation is time-wise, the chance of being detected and being acted against is greatly reduced. I know this goes against the idea of 5GW efforts having longer time-spans. I think the time of any active (detectable) 5GW operation must be short to be successful. Too many things can go wrong and bring sunshine to the 5GW operators otherwise. Now the planning phase may be much longer, and a 5GW could have multiple short operations over a long-time span.

    A well-run 5GW operation (besides creating or manipulating 4G movements for its own end) will want to run certain deception operations. A 5GW information war effort might plant rumors among the blogosphere of fake 5GW operations to discredit those bloggers specifically and those rumors of 5GW in general. Planting lots of false rumors of events that never happens will over-time increase the suspicion that 5GW operations that are being detected are just paranoid conspiracy theories not worth serious attention.

    I like the idea of you-know-who being the real force behind the 5GW movement. Certainly the ANSWER effort could be partially funded and run by native born converts who are tied into the UBL network. Conspiracy-inside-conspiracy seems hard to pull off – but new technology / knowledge / processes / super-empowerment-of-individuals may make Secret War more possible. Anything to divert US attention away from the GWOT would be good news for him and his network.

    I liked your thoughts on a possible longer-term outcome of semi-isolationism in the U.S. The idea of 5GW blowback has not been explored anywhere else that I can recall or find in my notes. An adept 5GW force will have to consider long-term and short-term effects. In some cases, a 5GW effort may be fine with a wide variety of potential outcomes as long as they distract or hurts the indented target. Other times, a 5GW force might discount heavily the future blowback costs if their immediate goal can be achieved (they can always adjust future 5GW operations to compensate). The concept of blowback may turn out to be the main barrier to effective 5GW movements. The complexity of 5GW operations along with 5GW blowback costs might raise the price too much to make the 5GW effort worthwhile in the first place.

    Of course this all assumes there is a 5GW effort by ANSWER, and not just coincidences extrapolated into 5GW fantasies by others and myself. A well run 5GW operation will be at worst perceived by a few who can then be marginalized as paranoid conspiracy-mongers before the operation is complete and the trail goes cold. The thinking on 5GW is still new and being worked out. I am partially using PurpleSlog to explore what 5GW might be, and how it might take place. Most likely, possible 5GW will have many different forms, with certain forms being found to be more effective then others over time.

  8. In some cases, a 5GW effort may be fine with a wide variety of potential outcomes as long as they distract or hurts the indented target.

    Yes. I was wondering if either a backlash to the protests or a success for the protesters would be acceptable for the 5GW force — and am still wondering. But ultimate outcomes aside, in the interim there would be much internal debate, perhaps increased polarization within the U.S. (California seceding? Naw…) So, really, if a 5GW force were behind the protests, we perhaps shouldn’t rush to conclusions about the primary motivations of that force.

    paranoid conspiracy-mongers

    Using conspiracy-mongers and those who like fisking conspiracy-mongers will be a useful tactic for some forms of 5GW, I think.

    the UBL network

    I guess you didn’t know who. I was thinking: China.

  9. But UBL had crossed my mind, too.

  10. Yeah, China would be a good candidate. There book “Unrestricited Warfare” definetly shows they are thinking along those lines.

  11. On China and Hard/Soft Power

    An interesting cross-view of China’s increasing global influence can be found at The Council on Foreign Relations:  “China’s Soft Seduction.”  Much of the information is not new, although perhaps more focus on individual perspectives may …

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