FutureJacked Suggests That Georgia vs. Russia Will Be the Next 4GW

FutureJacked writes:

So, let’s review the situation in Georgia:

1. We have a small country that is key link in a pipeline that transfers up to 1 million barrels of crude per day to world petroleum markets. This million barrels of crude is far more vital to the United States and Europe than it is to Russia – who is currently still an exporter of oil.
2. Georgia, a country sharing a border with Russia, is trying to join NATO
3. Georgia has two low-level insurgencies brewing, both supported to one degree or another by Russia
4. Georgia is supporting U.S. forces in Iraq and is now putting troops into combat situations, thereby beginning to create a force, small though it may be, that has experience in counterinsurgency warfare.
5. Russia is feeling more and more confident these days in her power. Demonstrating that power through a short, successful military campaign that crushes a fledgling NATO-aspiring country would go a long way to put the Baltic States and Eastern Europe on notice that Russia means business and that her interests must be taken into account.

Now, that high-octane mix of factors might just convince the Russians that a quick attack into Georgia, in support of the Ossetians and Abkhazians might be a low-risk, high-reward operation.

[…]

The Georgians would almost certainly adapt to a 4GW style of conflict. The Georgians would suffer greatly, but the Russians would pay the price in either an occupation that would drag on for years, resulting in many casualties, or in a quick in-and-out campaign that creates a generation of terrorists based in Georgia, plotting and executing attacks all through Russia.

Interesting stuff.

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One Response

  1. He’s always a good read. I especially enjoy his defense of nuclear energy. Very complete analysis and takes apart the opposing fallacies nicely.

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