RIP: Andrew Breitbart

Andrew Breitbart, a Strategic Citizen 5GWer working  to counter the Left in the American  5GW Civil War has passed away. He will be missed.

5GW Spotting: China vs. Islam

Is this a little 5GW being exposed?

 

Are the Chinese Sabotaging Islam?

The Chinese are masters at copycat capitalism;  give them a blueprint–or even an item they can reverse-engineer–and they’ll speedily and inexpensively start manufacturing knockoffs.  Some of us worry about quality control (understatement alert) for components of everything from computers to aircraft.  Whatif they are selling us stuff that will fail at a sensitive moment?  Or just plain fail?

It’s hard to separate national security concerns from the quality control issue, and of course “national security” is sometimes subject to surprising definition.  In Iran, for example, we find that the Chinese have penetrated the Koran market, and Chinese knockoffs cost less than Iranian-made versions.  But the cheap Chinese Korans have lots of typos…

I wonder if those “typos” are just typos, or if there is a systematic ideological campaign under way.  I mean, the Beijing regime is quite concerned about radical Muslim separatists in the West.  Why not subvert the doctrine, and make a profit at the same time?

Inquiring minds await the detailed report of the Iranian “Koran Oversight Office.”

Yes, you bet I’m serious.

 

 

 

 

My War-ish Reading List

Inspired by others, here is my War-ish reading list:

Two Classics:

– The Art of War by Sun-Tzu

– The Prince by Niccolò Machiavelli

General Purpose-ish

– The American Threat: National Security and Foreign Policy By James L Payne

– The New Face of War: How War Will Be Fought in the 21st Century by Bruce D. Berkowitz

– How Wars Are Won: The 13 Rules of War – from Ancient Greece to the War on Terror by Bevin Alexander

– Brave New War: The Next Stage of Terrorism and the End of Globalization by John Robb

– The Pentagon’s New Map Thomas P.M. Barnett

– Wired for War: The Robotics Revolution and Conflict in the 21st Century by P. W. Singer

Maneuver Warfare / 3GW

– Ender’s Game by Orson Scott Card (A short intro to Maneuver Warfare – aka 3GW – thinking embedded in a fun to read Science Fiction novel)

4GW

– War Nerd by Gary Brecher (This is a  book mostly about 4GW by an insightful asshole)

– The Principles of War for the Information Age by Robert Leonhard

– Utility of Force by Rupert Smith

– The Sling and the Stone by  Thomas X. Hammes

Moving toward some 5GW thinking…

– Unrestricted Warfare by Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui ( Forget the dumb criticism that this is anti-US book. This book broadens ones mind as to what conflict can be, is leads in to a key idea of 4GW and 5GW, that is the  Weaponization of things not thought to be Weapons)

– An Army of Davids by Glenn Reynolds (The emergence of Strategic Citizens)

– The Starfish and the Spider: The Unstoppable Power of Leaderless Organizations by Brafman and Beckstrom

– Strategic Denial and Deception: The Twenty-First Century Challenge edited by Roy Godson and James Wirtz

– World Was Going Our Way: The KGB and the Battle for the Third World by Christopher Andrew

– The Grand Jihad by Andrew McCarthy

Other/Related

– The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order by Samuel P. Huntington

– Dirty Tricks or Trump Cards: U.S. Covert Action and Counterintelligence by Roy Godson

– The Other Path: The Economic Answer to Terrorism by Hernando De Soto

– The Candy Bombers by Andrei Cherny

A little 5GW Theory spotting…

…here (“Covert Influence”):

 

Covert influence, influence that is not openly acknowledged or displayed, oftentimes occurs when those being influenced are actually unaware of their activities. Covert influence operations are time consuming—not hours, days, or weeks but months and often years. One of the many tactics behind covert influence stems in social conditioning. Persons actually unknowingly change their cognitive processing in believing the way their influencers desire.

Initiators in this covert espionage concept are rarely known. They are Mavens. To understand one of the processes which covert influence begins, think of Malcolm Gladwell’s book Tipping Point where he discusses Mavens, Connectors, and Salespersons.

Mavens are the brains with ideas to be executed. Mavens can be nation states. They can also be leaders of groups like terrorist organizations. Sometimes they are not leaders rather serve their masters as the brains behind the scenes. While Mavens are rarely known, they spread their ideas and memes to a few powerful persons known as Connectors.

Connectors, often construed as assets, have large networks of individuals who pitch these ideas and or memes onto the public. The Connectors are influential and tactically powerful. They have capabilities to persuade others. The others are their Salespersons.

Salespersons are normally everyday persons.  They have access to local level individuals and capabilities to spread the social meme onto others with relative ease. In the intelligence world, Salespersons are often referred to as sources.

 

I have a 5GW summary page here.

 

 

 

 

Why did this CAIR guy start following me on Twitter?

So why did Ahmed Rehab start following me on twitter? It beats me.

Maybe I should follow him back to track the current thinking of America’s enemies?

His twitter profile says he is a leader in US-based anti-US/anti-West Muslim Brotherhood front CAIR.

The profile also says he is an “Egyptian American democracy activist”.

Ha! The Muslim Brotherhood (which is also a 5GWer) and Democracy do not go together.

What are his recent tweets? Two of them are about Al-Qada not existing (they are a fiction of the FBI/CIA):

Here’s the link or here.

LINK: My previous fun with CAIR.

“The most important country to the United States is…” and a bit more (strategy and energy)

I started writing this as a comment on a post at Coming Anarchy, but it is a bit too long for that.

 

So in answer to their question…not really an answer but a steam of thoughts…

 

The USA long peaceful border with Canada makes it an important relationship. They are a no problem neighbor.

The USA should want the Mexico relationship to evolve into the same type  of thing. The relationship matters economically and because a failed Mexico impacts the security of the US. Even longer term, the US goal should be to integrate (peacefully and voluntarily) Mexico fully into the USA in the next 100 years.

The UK had been the most important USA overseas ally. The decline of the UK (and NATO), the rise of the EU, and the actions of the current US President have reduced that relationship. Our challenge with the EU is to both prop up Europe slowing/preventing it from turning in Eurabia, and to at the same time benefit from an exodus of smart/innovative/entrepreneurial/motivated Europeans (with their brains and capital) from pre-Eurabia Europe to the US.

India needs to be targeted as a future most important relationship – Economics/Security/Democracy – it all comes together for the USA with India. The US should also support India getting a permanent UN Security Council seat (good for Obama on this).

The USA relationship with China is important because of the economic interrelationship (for better or worse), China’s rise toward superpower status, and because the PRC leadership is clearly positioning China as the alternative/opponent/adversary of the US. China is essentially waging a 5GW against the US now. The US needs to step up to it or face it that US decline is coming sooner rather than later/never.

Russia matters because it has nukes, oil, and KGB/Active-Measure skills a plenty. Russia is not the USSR. Russia is in decline. The challenge here is to manage the relationship so that while declining, Russia doesn’t hatch any Black Swans. The US also wants to avoid the creation of Russia/Turkey/Iran Axis of Mischief.

Iran matters to the US because they have oil, can effect access to lots of oil, will have nukes soon, has revolutionary Islamic expansionary activities, and has leadership that seems hell-bent on future war with the US. The US goal here must be regime change – hopefully without massive Iranian population/infrastructure destruction. One way or another, this is going to get ugly since most of the non-ugly options have been disregarded/ignored by the US ostrich strategy.

Japan matters to US right now because it is distinct (not Europe, not China, not Muslim) and for its partner potential. The US should support Japan’s JDF expanding and getting expeditionary (lots of US officers and SNCO’s should be detailed to the JDF). We should support this capital rich nation getting involved with financing/engineering stuff in Eastern Russia and Africa. The US should encourage Japan and India to become better friends. and to inter-operate.

Saudi Arabia only matters because of oil, and because (along with Egypt and Pakistan) it is at the heart of the 4GW Islamofascist War by Al-Qada et all against the US/West and of the Muslim Brotherhood/Salafist et all 5GW against the US and the West.

As for the nations that matter in a big way because of Oil (e.g. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iran, Venezuela), the US should have as a major strategic goal that of breaking the world’s dependence upon oil for energy. The way to do that is:

1) Adopt something like Zubrin’s Flex-Fuel requirement for all new vehicles sold in the US (which means it would be adopted everywhere);

2) Easing/promoting/financing next-generation nuke and min-nuke power in the US and abroad (the US should want to be a world leader in this);

3) Adopting/promoting/financing Municipal Plasma Furnaces to generate electricity efficiently from trash in the US and abroad (the US should want to be a world leader in this);

4) Updating the US power grid into a network of smart grids and financing/deploying/promoting this around the world (the US should want to be a world leader in this);

5) The US should be making a major push for Orbital Solar Power systems and the related technology and processes. The US must be the world leader in this;

Note I am not calling for so-called hippy-friendly green energy (e.g earth-based solar, wind, etc, hemp/organic burning). Hippies can have an upside, just not on energy. There just isn’t potential enough of that at a reasonable costs to be the answer. Also, conservation isn’t the answer. I want more energy usage not less. I also want a future where Africans and Chinese, and Indians and everybody can have AC, bright lights in every corner of their homes and all of that. The happy future I want has more energy in total and more energy per capita, not less.

 

I want the Science Fiction Future of my youth.

 

Has Glenn Beck discovered 5GW?

I was home sick today. Of course, my TWC Internet went down at 8am and stayed down till now. I would say fuck TWC, but I don’t have a broadband alternative in my apartment. I did config my Roku to connect to a neighbor’s unprotected Wi-FI network so I could stream music from Pandora.

Anyways…

I turned on the TV and caught most of Glenn Beck‘s TV show. I am going to record and re-watch the late rerun and record it the rest of the week.

Glenn Beck has discovered 5GW.

 

From Wikipedia

 

He just isn’t using the term. Yet. Note to self…can he be sent a promo copy of the Handbook of 5GW.

He seemed to be suggesting a Neo-Communist/Neo-Marxist/Crytpo-Communist 5GW Project is underway and ramping up its actions…actions it has been taking small steps over time.

What he described seemed to be a sort of Open Conspiracy or Strategic Citizen 5GW.

He suggests – and had a countdown clock – that there was also a Puppetmaster at work that he will unveil details on Tuesday. He identified George Soros.

 

From Flickr

 

He pointed to the book The Coming Insurrection as a source of ideas for the 5GW.

He is pretty sure he will be denounced as a conspiracy monger. I think he is right on that.

He invoked magic and con men for tactics metaphors.

It seems that he plan to be a counter-5GW warrior by using sunlight to expose the 5GW and raise awareness of it.

In xGW terms, successful exposure of the 5GW effort will either collapse (defeat) it, or force it to come out into the open as a 4GW.

These are interesting times.

No quarter. No respite. Time for the takeback.

The American System isn’t supposed to be about Crony Capitalism to reward the Elites and the political connected. The elites hate and disdain the rest of us. They need to come to fear us. Time for the takeback has come. It will take a while – years. Relentless small-steps must be taken over time on fronts to rollback the elites back bit my bit. No quarter, no respite.

 

Found via TDAXP.

Bill Whittle Gets “It” – “This is a once-in-history idea” – Now what?

I came to this by Bill Whittle via a post by Zombie:

In fact, in all of human history, there has been only one genuinely progressive, genuinely liberating idea: a lightning bolt across the pages of history – the why in 1776, the how in 1787 – the idea of limited government, god-given rights, personal liberty and rule by the vast collective wisdom and industry of the common man, and not by the bored, pampered and self-hating elites that have run everything before and since. This is a once-in-history idea. This is why we have to conserve it. We have to conserve this fundamentally liberal idea.

Brilliant! I don’t think it would be possible to sum things up with less words without loosing clarity.

So if that is “It”, what is the opposite?

When a society – after generations of hard work, sacrifice and hardship – reaches a certain level of prosperity, “Progressives” like Bill Maher, Janeane Garofolo, Rosie O’Donnell and Gaius Gracchus – that last Progressive died in 121 BC – assume that the prosperity is endless, and push for more and more people to get more and more goods and services for less and less work. Why? Because – as today, in America, as with the British Empire, the French Empire, the Spanish Empire, the Ottomans, the Mongols, Rome, Greece, Eqypt, Babylon… They do it for political power. They live for political power. This “Progressivism” is ancient, recurring, tyrannical and ruinous.

And we voted for it. Just like the Romans did.

It is not just the opposite of “It”. The opposite is the norm course of events.

Whittle explains how the USA got to where it is in terms that made me think of 5GW:

And so they asked themselves: if the vanguard of the revolution wasn’t going to be the worker, then who would it be? And the answer they came up with was: the dispossessed.

The Neo-Marxist revolution would not attack the capitalist economy – that was too successful. The target of the new Marxist revolution would be the Culture.

Marxist philosophers like Antonia Gramsci, and later, Saul Alinski – personal hero to such present-day fellow travelers as Chris Matthews, Hillary Clinton and, of course, The President of the United States – started to create narratives – stories – about America. This rapidly evolved into a philosophy called “Critical Theory” and the idea of Critical Theory was to attack the dominant culture – that would be us – from all sides, simultaneously.

[…]

The objectives of the Frankfurt School, of Gramsci and Alinski in their assault on the culture, were laid out in detail and were very clear: Eliminate not only the voice, but the very idea of reason. Destroy history. Delegitimize shared morality. Medicate instead of discipline children. Promote the idea that problems are so complex that only elitists, experts and academics can discuss, let alone solve them. A later pair of American Marxist philosophers developed what became known as the Cloward-Piven strategy: overwhelm America’s social systems – welfare, health care, immigration, etc. by telling people they were owed things, and by intentionally overwhelming them, cause them to collapse – leaving nothing but smoking wreckage, and no where to turn but to the government.

This is certainly “Secret War” or “War of Hidden Movements”. Most of us don’t even know it is going on. Whittle calls even says:

we are in an information war, a battle of narratives…We are, together, soldiers in this narrative war for America and for civilization

The first part sounds like Memetic Engineering. The second part sound like Strategic Citizen 5GW.

So…how do “we” win? Using a Titanic analogy he gets to:

We need to ram the iceberg. We need to hit it head-on. We need to put in all the power we have – all of the power – and go right at the heart of that monster. Because everyone talks about what the iceberg did to Titanic, but no one talks about what Titanic did to the iceberg.

That sounds like degrading the 5GW into a 4GW. Maybe.

Any Specifics?

We, for the first time in human history, have an example of what a free society looks like. We, for the first time in history, are children of the only real progressives in all of human history. And we, for the first time in history, have the technology that allows common people to talk to each other, to encourage and inform each other, and to make an end run around the suicidal elites and their suicidal, dying media organs.

Is that it? I think (and it sounds right to me) he is suggesting every meme/false-story/false-narrative on the  must be challenged whether it it is in public or in our institutions with four intermediate ends in mind:

• Slow/prevent/rollback the memes opposed to “It”
• Convince the undecided to join on the side of “It”
• Discourage those opposed to “It”
• Encourage those on the side of “It”

What is the end goal for “It”? How about this blast from the past:

[…]that we here highly resolve that these dead shall not have died in vain — that this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom — and that government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth.

So now what?

What the 5th Generational Warfare Institute calls 5GW…is actually 4GW

What the 5th Generational Warfare Institute defines as 5GW this way…

The 5GW Educational Institute® offers the following definition for debate:  5GW is an extension of Asymmetrical and Insurgent Warfare, whereby the enemy uses all means – both conventional and unconventional military tactics and weapons; includes political, religious and social causes; incorporates 21st century Global strategic information operations campaigns (internet and 24 hours news cycle); can be conducted by organized or unorganized groups; may be nation state led or non-nation state led – to disrupt and defeat superior opponents in order to achieve their will.

…is actually still 4GW.

I understand the confusion. 5GW thinking is still developing.

The core problem is that 4GW itself is not well defined – it is more then just and advanced insurgency. Along time ago I blogged this…

Why cannot there be offensive and defensive forms of 4GW?

If a non-state actor 4GW force moves among a target state actor’s peoples and uses it institutions, systems and media against the target state actor, why wouldn’t a state-actor change it defensive processes and systems to reflect this as part of being 4GW-aware? Why wouldn’t a state actor decentralize certain functions, change its rule-sets to be able to fight lawfare against the 4GW non-state actor, etc?

…and this:

It is possible that those thinking about 4GW concentrate too much on 4GW as Guerrilla War X Other Stuff extrapolations. 4GW is still evolving and more variants will emerge. Looking at other proto-4GW movements, or other possible precursors will give us all a better idea of the direction 4GW and conflict in general will go.

What can 4GW theorist learn from organized crime like the Sicilian Mafia (and the godfather movies)?

How about the Right-wing/Neo-Fascists/Survivalist groups in America which seem to have peaked in the 1980s? Can anything be learned from how the KKK organized and operated in the 1900’s?

How about PETA?

How about the 100-year suffragettes movement?

Or the Prohibition movement. How the heck was that ever passed in the first place?

What can they learn from the Indian National movement (of which Ghandi’s peaceful resistance was only one part) or the American Civil Rights Movement (1900-1970)?

Can we learn from the IRA? Can we learn from the British response to the IRA?

My thinking went this way:

I have been thinking that 4GW is still being worked out the full range of possibilities is still being worked out. It is too focused on advanced/evolved guerrilla warfare. In 4GW, soft power is used to avoid the industrial might and firepower of 2GW and 3GW opponents. Also, a 4GW operation will use either hard power or soft power to fix an opponent, and the other to strike. In my draft notes, I shorthand 4GW as Full Spectrum Warfare. I know Nye breake out Hard, Economic, and soft power, but I just break it out as hardpower and softpower (including PNM Theory style sysadmin activities). [Spelling/Grammar Corrected]

It is a small step to see hard vs soft power along the lines of kinetic vs non-kinetic/dispersed-kinetics.

There are some core books IMO that can lead to understanding of 4GW (they can be read in any order – except read War Nerd last):

– The Utility of Force by Rupert Smith (see also this)

– Unrestricted Warfare by Qiao Liang and Wang (see also PDF version, this, this, this, this, and this)

– The Sling and the Stone by Hammes (see also this, this and this)

– The New Face of War by Bruce D. Berkowitz

– Positioning:The Battle for Your Mind by Al Ries and Jack Trout (see also this)

– The Principles of War for the Information Age by Robert Leonhard

– War Nerd by Gary Brecher (see also this)

So, how is 4GW defined?

Well this post is getting longer then I attended.

Next up will be defining 4GW.

5GW related – The Foundation Trilogy

I didn’t actually read Asimov’s Foundation Trilogy. Somehow, I had managed to not read it after all of these years.

Instead, I listened to a Radio/Podcast adapation from the BBC.

The 5GW actors are sort of Puppet Master 5GWers, acting over long timeframes using magic a new science to make perfect predictions over long time frames.

It was mildly entertaining.

It has no lessons for those looking for 5GW lessons for the real world.

Reference: Thomas Barnett’s 5GW Posts

When Barnett upgraded his blog to the current “Globlogization”, it broke the old links.

So, I don’t have to search and search for his 5GW stuff again. this is a quick reference page.

– 20061008 The sandwich generations-of-war strategy
[My Note: This is mostly a long quote by RevG who was an early 5GW thinker who has disappeared from the web]

– 20061009 Fifth Generation (political) warfare
– 20061015 Tom around the web: 5GW edition

– 20061016 My own personal 5GW dream
[My Note: This is the big one]

– 20061017 A thousand flowers will bloom on 5GW, and countless more weeds
– 20070619 Nice post by Curtis on 5GW
– 20070911 5GW v. 1+2+3=4
– 20091115 Obama 5GW
– 20100616 Gates: a 5GW warrior working a wedge

Cyber Security – APT – Advanced Persistant Threats – Capture Phrase…

…from here [The bolding is mine]:

Unlike traditional malicious attacks that occur over a number of minutes (days to weeks at most) and result in a demonstrable system payload, APTs are far more subtle. There is no single event to indicate compromise; the threat is made up of a number of small activities occurring over a long period of time, often up to 18 months.

The challenge facing security experts is that many of these small activities will not raise any alerts. APTs often include a degree of social engineering, with malicious individuals getting information from phone calls or looking up web addresses as a starting point for finding creative ways to gain access to systems, or they use people within the organisation to plant malware components within the system.

These small actions will not stand out from the millions of events occurring on an IT infrastructure every day– they get lost in the crowd. Even if they are noticed, they may be viewed as low risk when compared with traditional security threats, but in the era of APT these low-key events need to be considered differently.

Is there a trend in activity? Could this action actually provide a route into other company assets, such as financial information or intellectual property? Is this small event part of a larger scheme?

What does that sound like sort of? Hmm…

Now Shipping? The Handbook of 5GW

I ordered the print version of The Handbook of 5GW last night from Amazon.com. It does appear to be in stock and shipping even though the Pub date is September.

Amazon Bestsellers Rank: #251,817 in Books as of 13 Aug 2010

That sounds like 5GW to me

Cannoneer No 4 spots it:

@PurpleSlog In the real world the KGB is winning now. Look at us. Seeds planted by KGB generations ago now bear poisonous fruit

Let’s see…

– Memetic Engineering? Check.
– Long Time-lines? Check.
– Small Actions, step by step? Check.
– Institutional infiltration? Check.
– N-Order Effects are goal? Check.
– Done quietly? Check.
– The target actor overall doesn’t relaize it is ast war for the most part? Check.
– Those in the target actor set that do realize are ridiculed as conspiracy mongers? Check.
– All tactics used to avoid the 2GW/3GW power of the target? Check.

Sounds like 5GW to me.

Howard Zinn was a Communist…

…and not just the intellectual type. He was a card carrying active member of the CPUSA and many of its front organizations.

I am not that surprised.

The Other McCain has all of the important links and citations.

His summary:

What is important to note here is that Zinn evidently joined the Kremlin-controlled CPUSA not during the “Popular Front” era of the 1930s — when many idealists were seduced — but after the 1939 Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact in which Stalin cruelly and cynically sacrificed Poland to the Nazis. Zinn was a card-carrying Commie who advocated Marxism-Leninism after the Red Army’s ”Iron Curtain” occupation of Eastern Europe, after the treachery of the Rosenbergs and Alger Hiss had been revealed, and even during the height of Stalin’s anti-Semitic “Doctors’ Plot” purge!

UPDATE: Going through the PDFs and — wow! — Zinn’s file from the 1940s and ’50s makes for fascinating reading to anyone familiar with Communist Party history. Any innocent liberal might have unwittingly joined a CPUSA front group or two. But only a card-carrying Commie would have joined every front group that came along, as Zinn evidently did:

Just keep reading it.

Final thought: Will this revelation hurt or help his reputation in the media and on campuses?

Update: I tried to add the word “Communist” to his Wikipedia entry earlier this evening. Before I could even view my change, a member of the Wikipedia Thought Police had already reverted it. Don’t try fucking telling me that there is not an American 5GW civil war going on. The left is winning it too.

Shhhh….its almost here

Capturing Joseph Fouche on 5GW:

Here is a comment he made at CPS:

One of the useful features of 5GW is that it is a reminder that war is a full spectrum conflict. However, any replacement term for 5GW should indicate what 5GW is.

My spin on 5GW has been:

1. It would normally be described as politicking.
2. However, its intent is hostile and its intent is hidden. It is this combination of hostile intent and hidden intent makes 5GW war.
3. It is a war of influence.
4. If violence is involved, it is triggered through influence and politicking that induces someone else to conduct the violence. Violence is always indirect.

I think the defining element of 5GW is deception. Any name change should reflect that.

That being said, it’s probably stuck as 5GW, especially when Dan’s book comes out.

Capturing My Thoughts: Naming 5GW

Here is a comment I made at CPS (minor spelling corrections made):

I think TDAXP originally called it SecretWar in the sense that one side might not even be aware it was being war’d upon.

Deception is a major component of 5GW, even more so than other categories of war. Much of that is for security purpose. The 5GW effort is fragile…exposure of the leads to destruction of the 5GW effort or at best reduction from a 5GW to a weak 4GW effort.

Deception is used to hide the 5GW actors. This does not mean necessarily that they are in a secret unknown location, but just that they are not identified as being part of the 5GW, or that whatever they are doing is not 5GW (nothing to see, move along). This can also mean that those who are spotting the 5GW get branded as crazy/conspiracy-mongers.

Deception is used to hide or mask the 5GW’s goals/aims. If you don’t know what a 5GW effort is after, how can you counter it or raise awareness of it? Not knowing the goals also leads to reactions like that of Lexington Green that “isn’t 5GW just politics”.

Deception is used especially to hide its methods. This is done IMO by relying upon incremental indirect methods (N-order effects) across the full spectrum of domains over long periods of time. By using a wide array of small steps it is hard so-to-speak to follow backwards the trajectory to the source (the 5GWers), it is hard to follow the path forward to the target, it is hard to see that anything is going on at all.

I do note that it is hard to “aim” lots of small incremental indirect actions. By using lots of small steps, the “aim” can be corrected (corrected=learning) over time.

“What is Lawfare?”

Here is a site on a topic that is of much interest to me – The Lawfare Project:

What is Lawfare?

Lawfare: The Use of the Law as a Weapon of War

Lawfare denotes the use of the law as a weapon of war, or more specifically, the abuse of the law and legal systems for strategic political or military ends.

The Lawfare Project’s concentration is on the negative manipulation of laws to achieve a purpose other than, or contrary to that for which those laws were originally enacted.

The scope of the Lawfare Project’s focus is on lawfare as it is used (via the Western legal system, nationally and internationally) to:

   1. Thwart free speech about issues of national security and public concern,
   2. De-legitimize the sovereignty of democratic states, and
   3. Frustrate the ability of democracies to defend themselves against terrorism.

The primary goals of the Lawfare Project are: (i) To raise awareness about the phenomenon (and specific instances) of lawfare assuring the subject matter receive the credibility and immediacy that it warrants, (ii) facilitate (legal and non-legal) responses to the perversion and misapplication of international & national human rights law, (iii) identify and mobilize human and institutional resources, and (iv) bring diverse and interested parties together in a common forum to discuss the threat.

Lawfare’s central issues:

    * What legal limits should be placed on those who fight the war against terrorism and what rights should be granted to the terrorists we are fighting?
    *What role, if any, does international law play in the determination of a sovereign state’s ability to act within and without its territory?
    *Where does the power of a state end and the power of an international court or tribunal begin?
    *What consists of incitement to immediate violence and what is legitimate criticism of religion? Should hate speech be outlawed?
    *When an international tribunal displays political or other bias in its deliberations, is the state’s sovereign control abrogated?
    *Does the Universal Jurisdiction trend go against our national security interests? If Universal Jurisdiction is a concept that should be retained, what limits should be applied?
    *From where do courts in Spain and the Netherlands derive the authority to unilaterally grant themselves universal jurisdiction and the power to adjudicate over other nation-states?
    *To what extent must classified material be released to protect the rights of terrorists that allege torture? Where should terrorists and unlawful combatants be tried and imprisoned and under what law? Must the “underwear bomber” be read his Miranda rights?
    *Should a United Nations voting bloc comprised largely of undemocratic member states dictate international human rights norms?
    *What is the source of the bias evident in many human rights reports and in certain tribunals?

Case examples of Lawfare:

    *Al Qaeda manuals that instruct captured militants to file claims of torture in order to reposition themselves as victims in the eyes of the law and media.
    *Attempts by terrorist entities such as Hamas to impede the free movement of democratic state officials and achieve legitimacy by hiring lawyers and instituting “human rights” litigation abroad.
    *Efforts at the United Nations to exclude attacks on civilians from any international definition of the crime of terrorism, so long as the civilians are citizens of what is termed an “occupying power.”
    *Predatory defamation and “hate speech” lawsuits filed against anyone who speaks publicly about radical Islam, terrorism and its sources of financing.
    *Unilateral determinations of local/national courts to exert universal jurisdiction over heads of states, charging war crimes, including efforts to charge Israeli and US government officials with war crimes in the United Kingdom, Belgium, and Spain.
    *The International Court of Justice’s ruling on the legality of Israel’s security barrier, which pointedly ignored the fact that the barrier contributed to a sharp decline in terrorism attacks, and when it was unclear whether the court had jurisdiction to consider the issue in the first place.
    *The lack of legal accountability demanded of theocratic states that recruit their own children as suicide bombers and child soldiers.
    * The resurgence of international and national blasphemy laws (at the United Nations and in Europe.)

Check it out.

Watching V (spoilers)

Spoilers to follow…

(old found draft post)Historical 5GW Example: The Anti-Nixon 5GW-ish Coup

Dec 31, 2008 @ 15:53

I should still write this up more fully, if I have time to get into it. The revelation was pretty shocking and way under-reported.

—

http://amicablecollisions.blogspot.com/2008/12/all-fbis-men.html

http://committeeofpublicsafety.wordpress.com/2008/12/23/deep-throats-coup-detat/

http://committeeofpublicsafety.wordpress.com/2008/12/25/the-deep-throat-dilemma/

https://purpleslog.wordpress.com/2008/12/16/the-joint-chiefs-of-staff-using-the-stenographer-as-their-agent-actively-spied-on-the-civilian-command-during-the-vietnam-war/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_Throat_(Watergate)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/W._Mark_Felt

(old found draft post) Ralph Peters: “the complexity of counterterror operations comes down to three essential requirements”

Dec 4, 2008 @ 10:17

I am not sure why I didn’t post it. I guess I didn’t feel like going to how to do a counter-terror/counter-4GW 5GW. I should come back to this idea.

—

In the NY Post:

All the complexity of counterterror operations comes down to three essential requirements: Superb intelligence, ruthless determination and tremendous patience.

Intelligence helps you find the enemies you need to kill; determination means you kill them – and patience means accepting that even a successful fight will take decades, if not generations.

Sounds right to me.

So, do we have “Superb intelligence”. I have no idea. It is at least “good” I would venture (and expect given the budget size).

Do we have “ruthless determination”? I don’t think – at least much of the political class doesn’t (or most the US  population).

Lastly, Does the US have “tremendous patience”. I would say no, for sure no way. The US did not have the patience in the Cold War. It took a 5GW to set much of the US cold war response on automatic.

I guess we need a Long War 5GW.

Capturing My Thoughts: More on the 5GW Puppetmaster

I originally made this comment on a Dreaming 5GW post by Adam Elkus:

However, I see it as very rare—the entry costs to such an effort could only be met by someone extremely wealthy, with an almost supernatural level of intelligence. I suppose it would work best for a state security agency.

I don’t really see a valid a Blofeld/SPECTRE [1] or Professor Moriarty [2] type Puppetmaster [3]. Also note that I don’t think a Puppetmaster is the only possible type of 5GW actor [4].

Any 5GW effort requiring superhuman wealth or intelligence is unlikely to ever be attempted, let alone succeed. Looking for this type of puppet master leads to madness and conspiracy theory mongering [6].

I didn’t quite see the 5GW Puppetmaster that way. Relying upon smaller action and N-order effects along without have a personal profit motive/goal brings down the cost and need for super-human intelligence.

The stealth aspect of it would not suit most guerrillas and terrorists. Driven by nationalism and religion, they wage a public war directed towards various audiences.

A very public action by a 5gw group will expose it. if the group itself isn’t destroyed, its utility is dramatically reduced. Exposure stops 5GW.

As far as Ghost in the Shell, I guess I need to get some DVDs…

Here [7] is Adam’s post at his own excellent blog.
—
[1]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ernst_Stavro_Blofeld
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SPECTRE

[2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Professor_Moriarty

[3] https://purpleslog.wordpress.com/2007/05/23/possible-5gw-archetype-the-puppet-master-5gw/

[4]
https://purpleslog.wordpress.com/2009/07/25/5gw-operation-notes-who-what-where-when-why-how/

[6]
https://purpleslog.wordpress.com/2006/05/30/5gw-will-hide-in-the-sea-of-conspiracy-theories-to-avoid-discovery/

[7]
http://simulatedlaughter.blogspot.com/2007/05/puppetmaster.html

Capturing Thoughts: 5GW Analysis Paralysis

I don’t want to have to google for these notes again…

From http://shloky.com/?p=762#comment-33197 :

Shloky is correct to point out that there is a danger in seeing patterns or conspiracies where there are none and drawing conclusions that some secret puppet master is pulling strings. That way can lead to madness or Analysis Paralysis.

ARHERRING on  CGW’s old blog:

‘5GW analysis paralysis’

In other words, what is the effect of the knowledge that you have an opponent merely capable of 5GW campaigns? Given the inherent secrecy of 5GW your opponent has only two real options, (regardless of if you choose the engage in a 5GW campaign or not) he can proceed as if no campaign is ongoing and accept your influence while trying to maintain his objectives, or he can search so obsessively for the 5GW manuevering against him that he ceases to able to function as a legitimate threat.

From Old CGW blog:

Folks, it does not get clearer than that.  Arherring was spot-on when he suggested that al-Qaida in Iraq (and perhaps elsewhere?) is morphing into a 5GW entity.  I have been considering whether the aftermath of our invasion of Afghanistan would force al-Qaida to morph, especially when 4GW tactics fail to defeat America and her allies; and, of course, hostilities in the region, latent or otherwise, provide a fertile playing ground for any 5GW entity that would seek pawns that could do its bidding — without those pawns’ knowing that is what they are doing.

Or, maybe Arherring was not entirely right.  Either al-Qaida got sloppy and their 5GW plans were discovered because of their sloppiness — surely, a major no-no for any 5GW force — or perhaps the letter has never been seen by any member of al-Qaida?

Would the national Iraqi government have any reason to attempt to dissuade America from attacking Iran?  Or, perhaps some Shia elements within the Iraqi government do not want to lose the leverage they will have with Iran’s support, in the future,  if Iran fell to America?

Arherring did point me to that Newsvine discussion, which includes another conspiracy theory: The American forces planted the evidence, for political reasons back home — to show that America is “winning” against the insurgency.

Another commenter at Newsvine ponders the possibility that the letter is authentically from al-Qaida, and that this was their plan all along when they attacked America on 9/11 — reminiscent of my discussion with Alan Sullivan (excerpted above.)

Perhaps, however, some Americans planted the information to dissuade GWB from pursuing a military solution to the crisis with Iran — leftists from America?

Or, from Europe?

Or, perhaps Iran planted the information, for the same reasons?

Or did the Iraqi government want to find a way of assuring the electorate that the insurgency is failing, the government succeeding (with the help of America) against the disruptive forces?

Did China plant the note, or Russia, in an attempt to keep their oil supplies flowing from Iran?

Ah, PurpleSlog, maybe you got that right.

UPDATE 6-19-06: As this post from Abu Aardvark shows, conspiracy theories have a “way” of emerging in the broad spectrum, in multiple places — and anyone offering analysis is sure to get caught in the web of charge-&-counter-charge when analysis of incomplete or insufficient and unverifiable “evidence” is being offered. [Worse, perhaps:  when analysts confuse another’s analysis with evidence, as if analysis can ever be evidence.] Any one or a multiplicity of points in such analysis could well be correct, but the sea of conspiracy theory and fisking of conspiracy theory would dissuade most people from taking any of those points very seriously. PurpleSlog has recently related this phenomenon to Analysis Paralysis.

Lastly from Wikipedia:

Casual analysis paralysis can occur during the process of trying to make personal decisions if the decision-maker overanalyzes the circumstance with which he or she is faced. When this happens, the sheer volume of analysis overwhelms the decision-maker, weighing him or her down so much he or she feels overwhelmed with the task and is thus unable to come to a rational conclusion. Such a circumstance is more formally known as cognitive distortion.
[…]
Although analysis paralysis can actually occur at any time, regarding any issue in typical conversation, it is particularly likely to occur during elevated, intellectual discussions. During such intellectual discussion, analysis paralysis involves the over-analysis of a specific issue to the point where that issue can no longer be recognized, and the subject of the conversation is lost. Usually, this happens because complex issues (which are often the basis of elevated, intellectual conversation) are intricately connected with various other issues, and the pursuit of these various issues makes logical sense to the participants.
[…]
In board games, analysis paralysis denotes a state where a player is so overwhelmed by the decision tree that he or she faces that the player’s turn takes an inordinate amount of time.

Update 8/3/2009: CGW has a related/linked post.