Bad news from Nepal…

Did anybody not see this coming?

Barely two years after ending an armed insurgency that killed more than 13,000 people, Nepal’s former Maoists rebels have stunned themselves, the Nepalese people, and the world with a landslide win in constituent assembly elections that could profoundly change Nepali politics. [Link: Christian Science Monitor]

I LOL’d at this:

But concerns are growing that Nepal’s moderate political parties – which coaxed the Maoists into mainstream politics and forgave past atrocities in the interests of peace – might be sidelined and a more radical agenda prevail.

No shit?

What matters now, analysts say, is how the Maoists themselves interpret the will of Nepalis.

The vanguard doesn’t wait for the will of the people, it leads the people since the people don’t know what is good for them.

The Left is happy. The phrase “A New World Is Possible” makes me shutter with nightmares of future re-education camps, mass graves, and secret police.

Peace in Nepal?

Noblesse Oblige reports that:

The decades old Maoist insurgency in Nepal has now come to an end, at least on paper.

I certainly hope so.

I don’t think the Maoist see it that way though. This is just a step for them.

Nepal Update – Situation Getting Worse

Coming Anarchy has a reader update on the Situation in Nepal were a potential Communist take-over is gaining (I blogged on this earlier):

The idea that is floating around is that the Maoist are already so entrenched in all aspect of government that they cannot be stopped. It is said they are ready to replicate the 1917 Bolshevik revolution, page by page. From the look of it, I see the same.

I had written earlier:

The Communist successively co-opted the manpower of an organization with different goals (democratic Nepal) to advance the Communist's goals. This was a successful use of 4G by the Commies against the pro-democracy forces.

The Coming Anarchy Report begins by confirming my thoughts from above:

The seven opposition parties are fronting the Maoists.

Hopefully, Nepal is small and isolated enough that there isn't any spillover into nearby regions.

In the comments, ZenPundit makes a Killing Fields reference. Let's hope he is not prophetic.

Update: First hand account with the Communist. And another (via ZenPundit)

The Two Theories of War

A long time ago when I was an undergraduate at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, I took a course called Problems In American Foreign Policy. I was not a Political Science major, but I gamed the system pretty well so I was able to take upper-level/grad Political Science courses for most of my social science electives and other filler credits. The course was great and was taught a wonderful professor John Armstrong who retired a few years later.

One of the books for the class was The American Threat by James Payne. Future Purpleslog will cover this book at some time in the future.

For now, I would like to just bring up quickly the 2 theories of war it discussed:

• The Excitation Theory of War
• The Appeasement Theory of War

Communists Gain in Nepal

The NY Times reports:

Nepal's new and increasingly assertive interim government detained five of the king's men on Friday, as a government-appointed commission set up to investigate the royal crackdown on pro-democracy protests last month recommended an even riskier step: suspending the country's security chiefs.

This will make the countering the Maoist (the NY Times doesn't want to use the words Marxist or Communist) more difficult.

In a series of swift moves apparently aimed at cooling a Maoist rebellion, the new government has released two of the most senior rebel leaders, promised to hold peace talks and reciprocated the guerrillas' cease-fire offer.

Appeasing the Communist by giving them things they want signals weakness and submission.

Last fall, the main political parties linked arms with the Maoists in a joint bid to restore democracy. Last month, their strategy worked to dislodge the king from power. Now comes the tussle among them.

The Communist successively co-opted the manpower of an organization with different goals (democratic Nepal) to advance the Communist's goals. This was a successful use of 4G by the Commies against the pro-democracy forces.

The former ministers arrested on Friday were among the king's most prominent.

Their arrests come against the backdrop of a recommendation by the judicial commission to suspend the chiefs of the Royal Nepalese Army, the Armed Police Force and the intelligence services.

All Leader-obsticles to the Maoist have been removed.

For the government even to consider the suspension of the security chiefs is "a calculated risk," said one foreign diplomat here, who follows Nepal closely and who insisted on not being identified for fear of being seen as interfering in Nepal's internal politics.

The calculation is not risky. It is foolhardy.