“The most important country to the United States is…” and a bit more (strategy and energy)

I started writing this as a comment on a post at Coming Anarchy, but it is a bit too long for that.

 

So in answer to their question…not really an answer but a steam of thoughts…

 

The USA long peaceful border with Canada makes it an important relationship. They are a no problem neighbor.

The USA should want the Mexico relationship to evolve into the same type  of thing. The relationship matters economically and because a failed Mexico impacts the security of the US. Even longer term, the US goal should be to integrate (peacefully and voluntarily) Mexico fully into the USA in the next 100 years.

The UK had been the most important USA overseas ally. The decline of the UK (and NATO), the rise of the EU, and the actions of the current US President have reduced that relationship. Our challenge with the EU is to both prop up Europe slowing/preventing it from turning in Eurabia, and to at the same time benefit from an exodus of smart/innovative/entrepreneurial/motivated Europeans (with their brains and capital) from pre-Eurabia Europe to the US.

India needs to be targeted as a future most important relationship – Economics/Security/Democracy – it all comes together for the USA with India. The US should also support India getting a permanent UN Security Council seat (good for Obama on this).

The USA relationship with China is important because of the economic interrelationship (for better or worse), China’s rise toward superpower status, and because the PRC leadership is clearly positioning China as the alternative/opponent/adversary of the US. China is essentially waging a 5GW against the US now. The US needs to step up to it or face it that US decline is coming sooner rather than later/never.

Russia matters because it has nukes, oil, and KGB/Active-Measure skills a plenty. Russia is not the USSR. Russia is in decline. The challenge here is to manage the relationship so that while declining, Russia doesn’t hatch any Black Swans. The US also wants to avoid the creation of Russia/Turkey/Iran Axis of Mischief.

Iran matters to the US because they have oil, can effect access to lots of oil, will have nukes soon, has revolutionary Islamic expansionary activities, and has leadership that seems hell-bent on future war with the US. The US goal here must be regime change – hopefully without massive Iranian population/infrastructure destruction. One way or another, this is going to get ugly since most of the non-ugly options have been disregarded/ignored by the US ostrich strategy.

Japan matters to US right now because it is distinct (not Europe, not China, not Muslim) and for its partner potential. The US should support Japan’s JDF expanding and getting expeditionary (lots of US officers and SNCO’s should be detailed to the JDF). We should support this capital rich nation getting involved with financing/engineering stuff in Eastern Russia and Africa. The US should encourage Japan and India to become better friends. and to inter-operate.

Saudi Arabia only matters because of oil, and because (along with Egypt and Pakistan) it is at the heart of the 4GW Islamofascist War by Al-Qada et all against the US/West and of the Muslim Brotherhood/Salafist et all 5GW against the US and the West.

As for the nations that matter in a big way because of Oil (e.g. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iran, Venezuela), the US should have as a major strategic goal that of breaking the world’s dependence upon oil for energy. The way to do that is:

1) Adopt something like Zubrin’s Flex-Fuel requirement for all new vehicles sold in the US (which means it would be adopted everywhere);

2) Easing/promoting/financing next-generation nuke and min-nuke power in the US and abroad (the US should want to be a world leader in this);

3) Adopting/promoting/financing Municipal Plasma Furnaces to generate electricity efficiently from trash in the US and abroad (the US should want to be a world leader in this);

4) Updating the US power grid into a network of smart grids and financing/deploying/promoting this around the world (the US should want to be a world leader in this);

5) The US should be making a major push for Orbital Solar Power systems and the related technology and processes. The US must be the world leader in this;

Note I am not calling for so-called hippy-friendly green energy (e.g earth-based solar, wind, etc, hemp/organic burning). Hippies can have an upside, just not on energy. There just isn’t potential enough of that at a reasonable costs to be the answer. Also, conservation isn’t the answer. I want more energy usage not less. I also want a future where Africans and Chinese, and Indians and everybody can have AC, bright lights in every corner of their homes and all of that. The happy future I want has more energy in total and more energy per capita, not less.

 

I want the Science Fiction Future of my youth.

 

The US Can’t depend upon the EuroCore

Georgia and Ukraine should be integrated into the EuroCore.

European States have other ideas:

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization won’t give Georgia and Ukraine a road map to membership at a meeting later this year, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Thursday.
[…]
Mrs. Merkel’s rejection of a NATO track for Georgia and Ukraine, at a news conference with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in St. Petersburg, would effectively act as a veto. The Western military alliance operates by consensus. [Link]

The result is predictable:

Meanwhile, Kiev took a step away from the West and closer to Moscow, as Ukraine’s Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko announced gas deals with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and voiced support for Russian accession to the World Trade Organization. [link].

If the west doesn’t want to bring the Ukraine (and Georgia) into the EuroCore, they will go elsewhere.

This is a dumb move by the EuroCore (the latest in a long line). It is still in the European leaders blood to appease aggression and act on fear of any risk (higher oil/gas prices).

Putin’s Russia depends upon Europe buying oil/gas just as much as Europe depends upon Russia selling it. To avoide any risk though, the EuroCore is willing to signal to the Ukraine and Georgia that they are not really wanted in the “proper” Europe.

The Russian leadership is proving to be quite good at the influence warfare game. That is not surprising considering their shared background.

Well played Czar Putin, well played.

“Stalin acted ‘entirely rationally’ in executing and imprisoning millions of people in the Gulags”

The descent of Russia back into the GAP is quite noticable and continues:

Stalin acted ‘entirely rationally’ in executing and imprisoning millions of people in the Gulags, a controversial new Russian teaching manual claims.

Fifty-five years after the Soviet dictator died, the latest guide for teachers to promote patriotism among the Russian young said he did what he did to ensure the country’s modernisation.

The manual, titled A History of Russia, 1900-1945, will form the basis of a new state-approved text book for use in schools next year.
[…]

So, what should the US Russia Strategy be? My first thoughts were this:

The question is what should US strategy be? I don’t know. Goals shoudl be something like:
1) Moving the default stance of Russia toward the US from Adversary back to Neutral.
2) Getting core-sates Japan, China and India to take a bigger role in dealing with this Asian gap state.
3) Getting the NATO and the EU off their ass to be the lead in protecting new-core Eastern Europe. I like SDBs suggestion: Move NATO HQ to Poland as a signal.
4) Rush the entry of eastern European countries into institutions like NATO, WTO etc.

Ok,this is turning into a post. I have to write my post on this “Russian vs. Georgia and Russia vs. The Core: Lesson Learned and Next Actions”

I made to think more on this and write a real post. I do know we shouldn’t rush or overreact. Russia isn’t the Soviet Union. Jeez, the US and the West really don’t this distraction right now.

FutureJacked Suggests That Georgia vs. Russia Will Be the Next 4GW

FutureJacked writes:

So, let’s review the situation in Georgia:

1. We have a small country that is key link in a pipeline that transfers up to 1 million barrels of crude per day to world petroleum markets. This million barrels of crude is far more vital to the United States and Europe than it is to Russia – who is currently still an exporter of oil.
2. Georgia, a country sharing a border with Russia, is trying to join NATO
3. Georgia has two low-level insurgencies brewing, both supported to one degree or another by Russia
4. Georgia is supporting U.S. forces in Iraq and is now putting troops into combat situations, thereby beginning to create a force, small though it may be, that has experience in counterinsurgency warfare.
5. Russia is feeling more and more confident these days in her power. Demonstrating that power through a short, successful military campaign that crushes a fledgling NATO-aspiring country would go a long way to put the Baltic States and Eastern Europe on notice that Russia means business and that her interests must be taken into account.

Now, that high-octane mix of factors might just convince the Russians that a quick attack into Georgia, in support of the Ossetians and Abkhazians might be a low-risk, high-reward operation.

[…]

The Georgians would almost certainly adapt to a 4GW style of conflict. The Georgians would suffer greatly, but the Russians would pay the price in either an occupation that would drag on for years, resulting in many casualties, or in a quick in-and-out campaign that creates a generation of terrorists based in Georgia, plotting and executing attacks all through Russia.

Interesting stuff.

Judo Trumps Chess

There is a discussion at Hot Air about former World Chess Champion Kasparov running for President of Russia.

Some of the comments seem to suggest because he is maybe the best chess player ever he has a leg up on his opponent.

Here was my thought:

Politics is more like Judo then Chess.

Putin is a Judo expert.

Russian Bombers Playing Games – This Demands a Counter Move

The Russians are playing games by flying their bombers close and into US/NATO airspace.

This demands a response by NATO.

NATO should accelerate the adding of new members. Some nations should be invited to join still in 2007 (but announced now) such as Croatia, Macedonia, Georgia, Albania, and yes, even Ukraine.

Found on Wikipedia: “The Dulles Plan”

From Wikipedia:

Since the early 1990s, anti-Western media in Russia have referred to the so-called Dulles plan (Russian: план Даллеса). It is the text (in Russian) of a secret plan to destroy the USSR through the ideological manipulation of the Soviet population and the corruption of its morals. The source of this text is unknown. It is reported to have been his speech to the US Congress made in 1945 or a passage from his book published in 1945 or 1953. There are no known speeches or writings of Dulles that contain this plan. Interestingly, this text almost literally coincides with the words spoken by a character in The Eternal Call (Russian: Вечный зов), a novel by Anatoly Ivanov published in 1971-1976.

I was unable to find any other web references to this via google, and I am too lazy to check any further.

So, is this just an example of Russian Paranoia? Denial by aging-Reds and/or retro-Reds?

Or is it from ripples (or shadows cast) of a long forgotten and well concealed proto-5GW?

[Cross Posted to Dreaming 5GW]

Is Russia’s New Political Party A Front?

Ok, the link is old, but Publius writes:

According to an article in today’s Guardian Unlimited, United Russia, the largest Russian political party by far, is losing its appeal with the electorate. It seems that the party’s narrow platform, to support the President in every way, is something of a turn-off. So, what is to be done?

‘Create another…[party]…that pretends to be an opponent.’ Yes, Putin is going to manufacture an ‘opposition’ party…controlled by the Kremlin of course. This is another wonderful example of managed democracy in Russia.

Putin is a KGB alumni.

Reading the post, what came to mind quickly was a fantastically successful counter-intel program run by the Checka/OGPU. Checka set up a front called “The Trust” that served as a magnet for counter-revolutionaries and western support and money in the early years of the USSR.

Checka was able to roll-up the early dissident/spy networks and fund their own activities with the western contributions.

Is Putin a student of history?